Warm temps delay winter season

Seeley Lake and much of western Montana have seen a decent amount of moisture, but temperatures have stayed well above average to limit snowpack and delay some winter activities.

Winter road closures in the Seeley Lake Ranger District have been pushed back a week, the Lolo National Forest announced on Dec. 5. The transition to winterized roads will start on Dec. 11 and is expected to be finished by Dec. 15 - one week later than planned.

"Winter has arrived on the Seeley Lake Ranger District," the release said. "Seasonal roads that were previously open to wheeled-vehicles will either be closing for winter or transitioning to over-snow vehicle use for snowmobiles and other winter recreation.

The warmer weather, triggered by an El Nino weather pattern, has central Montana at its lowest snowpack levels since 2015, according to Ray Nickless, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service.

The Swan, Clearwater and Blackfoot drainage areas are all below average for snow at this time of the year. Nickless told the Pathfinder that concern is growing for the stability of next year's snowpack, which the area's rivers depend on.

"The Swan River and the Clearwater River really need snowpack to maintain their flows," Nickless said. "Rain can help the soil, but we have not gotten enough of it."

Across Montana, snowpack levels have remained below normal. The National Water and Climate Center estimated the Upper Clark Fork Basin, including the Clearwater and Blackfoot watersheds, stood at just 51% of normal for Dec. 11.

The Upper Swan watershed, part of the Flathead region, reached 75% of normal. The highest percentage in Montana was just 80% of normal. The high in Seeley Lake on Wednesday, Dec. 6 stood at 44 degrees, roughly 18 degrees above the average.

Nickless said the Seeley Swan Valleys have gotten roughly 73% of its normal rain and snow.

Ryan Leach, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Missoula, said there has been a decent amount of moisture this fall and winter, but not nearly enough cold temperatures.

Leach said an atmospheric river last week decimated much of the region's snowpack, but most of that water was still absorbed into the soil. He noted that there is still time to recharge the snowpack towards normal levels.

"It's just going to take a little time this year to get temperatures down and have a few storms roll through," Leach said.

The impact of the El Nino will be tested through the end of December. Nickless explained that December and January are the major snow accumulation months. If the snow does not stick through that period, there will be slim chances of catching up the rest of the winter.

"It will be hard to catch up in the months of February and March," Nickless said. "We can certainly accumulate snow, it might not be the same, but we will get something."

To get updates on the roads in Seeley Lake, call the ranger station at 406-677-2233. The U.S. Forest Service also provides over-snow travel route maps for free at the ranger station or online at https://www.fs.usda.gov/lolo.