The snow is piled high at the Sheppy Ranch north of Ovando. The last time Bob Sheppard drove his snowmobile on the roof was during the winter of 1996-1997. Many have compared this winter's snowfall to the record year in 1996-1997 but the area is still 100 inches of snow short.
Trends in streamflow forecasts in basins for which daily water supply forecast models are available and can be followed at: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/daily_forecasts.html
The snowpack across Montana remains in good shape starting the month of March with all basins in the state at near to above normal for the date. In fact, Montana is the only state in the 12 western U.S. states where the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service measures snowpack in which all basins in the state have at least normal snowpack conditions.
Precipitation thus far in the water year (beginning October 2017) has been well below normal in much of the West except for northern areas in Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming as well as Interior Alaska, where it has been near to well above normal.
Snowpack at SNOTEL sites and snow courses as of March 1 in the western U.S. and the Columbia Basin in Canada maintains the same stark contrast as has been the case all winter between the northern and southern parts of the region.
Near to well above median snow water equivalent lies in a northwest to southeast ranging zone, from Washington and British Columbia down into northern Idaho, western Montana and northwestern Wyoming.
In complete contrast, most areas south and west of this demarcation have well below median snow water equivalent, with several sites registering record low snowpack.
Percentage-wise, the best snowpack in Montana can be found in the Upper Clark Fork (158 percent of normal), Missouri Mainstem near Helena (149 percent), Upper Yellowstone (162 percent) and Gallatin River basins (135 percent).
Locally, the Coyote Hill snow course located just north of Lake Alva is showing the snowpack is at 162 percent. To the west, the North Fork Jocko SNOTEL site is showing snowpack to be at 144 percent.
All of this amounts to great information to water users in the state but a healthy dose of caution is still warranted.
Snowpack typically peaks across the state during April or May, depending on which region in the state you're in. The coming months are critical for water supply and in many basins east of the Divide the months of March, April and May typically provide significant precipitation.
"Should La Nina and associated weather patterns continue to favor the state with above normal snowfall or even normal snowfall from this point, water supply could be more than adequate for irrigation and recreation this summer," said Lucas Zukiewicz, NRCS water supply specialist for Montana. "But, if the pattern takes a turn and the snow faucet shuts off, the prospects of our water supply would be diminished."
Monthly Water Supply Outlook Reports can be found at the website below after the 5th business day of the month: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/mt/snow/waterproducts/basin/
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